The Georgia runoff election and why it matters

Fierce Planet Posted on by

And there we are — Warnock won! (gift link)

Senate Democrats look to the future with expanded majority after Georgia win

With 51 votes in the Senate now, Democrats are celebrating faster legislative movement and newly obtained subpoena power

 

Tomorrow is election day in Georgia, and our final Senate seat will be decided at last. Nearly two million votes (gift link) have already been cast, setting new records for early voting in the state.

Georgia Senate runoff smashes early voting records — and attracts new voters

Georgia has set new records for early voting again as the two Senate candidates blitz the state ahead of Tuesday’s runoff election. And the contest is drawing new voters, too.

More than 1.85 million Georgians have voted early, according to the office of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, breaking two single-day records in about a week.

Among those who have already turned out, 56% were women and 44% men. White voters made up 55% of early voters, 32% were Black, and Latinos and Asian Americans each accounted for less than 2% of the total….

 
Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock may well beat Herschel Walker, but it is not a certain thing. We know that turnout by women, people of color, and young voters is good news for Democrats, but tomorrow’s final vote will be crucial. Right now the Senate has a Democratic majority, but if Walker wins the Senate will return to an even 50-50 split, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie vote. With her vote, Dems will hold the majority regardless of what happens in this race. But turning that to a 51-49 majority would have several very useful effects, as this New York Times essay explains. (gift link)

Everything Democrats Could Do if Warnock Wins

…Yet the outcome of Mr. Warnock’s contest matters significantly, for Democrats and Republicans alike — but especially for Democrats. They need Mr. Warnock in power for at least two overriding reasons: to safeguard their gains in the judiciary and to bolster their national bench….

If Mr. Warnock wins, the Senate can move more rapidly and seek judges who are perhaps more progressive in their worldviews — the sort who could hit a snag if someone like Joe Manchin, the centrist from West Virginia, or Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is the deciding vote.

Democrats must evenly split committee members in the 50-50 Senate, giving Republicans the power to delay votes on judges. A 51-49 majority would be much more dominant: Committees like the judiciary would be stacked with Democrats, greatly speeding up the confirmation process….

And then there’s 2024. If Mr. Walker defeats Mr. Warnock, Republicans will have an enormous advantage in their quest to not only flip the Senate but also build a durable majority that could last a generation or more. The 2024 map is foreboding for Democrats…

No doubt VP Harris would be more than happy to use her time for something other than babysitting the Senate.

I’ve said before and still believe that Herschel Walker would be incompetent as a Senator. I can barely believe that the Republican Party hasn’t melted down in shame for even nominating such a person to represent them. It’s up to the rest of us, this time in Georgia, to show a better side of the United States by electing Raphael Warnock to remain in the Senate.

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To the ones who keep the passion, respect…

Fierce Planet Posted on by

I’m writing a very personal post, which as usual means I’m half-blocked and writing very slowly. Can’t be helped, this is my only process.

So while that goes on, let’s celebrate Jane Fonda, who at the age of 84, after five arrests and recent treatment for cancer, once again leads the Fire Drill protests that began years ago, before Covid. (gift link should get you past the firewall). Their goal is to increase awareness of the continual dangers of climate change, and to pressure Congress to take action now.

Fonda retakes the Hill: ‘Cancer is scary, but the climate crisis is scarier’

After years away from Washington, the actress is reviving her Fire Drill Fridays rally — and occasionally still talking movies

…The actress and activist, who will turn 85 in a few weeks, arrives at an upscale Washington hotel looking chic in a snappy charcoal blazer, a gray newsboy’s cap and an array of tasteful gold jewelry pieces. She’s just come from Capitol Hill, where she’s been lobbying Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). But her main reason for returning to Washington is to revive Fire Drill Fridays, the weekly grass-roots political action she began in 2019 to draw attention to climate change….

She has mostly sailed through her chemotherapy treatments, although she admits the last one was hard. “It took a couple of weeks to recover,” she says. But she literally laughs off a disease that she insists won’t stop her from doing what she cares about most. “Cancer is scary, but the climate crisis is scarier,” she says flatly.

Fonda recalls co-founding Fire Drill Fridays with Greenpeace three years ago. “Our goal was to reach the 70 percent of the population who were concerned about the climate but had never taken action,” she explains, “and move them from being alone and concerned to together and active.”

Thousands of people turned up for Fonda’s in-person weekly demonstrations…

May we all continue to stand up for the things that must be done to insure that humanity and the planet we rely on remain alive and well.

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Dreamers

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Look who we are, we are the dreamers
We make it happen ’cause we believe it
Look who we are, we are the dreamers
We make it happen ’cause we can see it

Here’s to the ones that keep the passion
Respect, oh, yeah
Here’s to the ones that can imagine
Respect, oh, yeah

 

 
Jungkook of BTS opens the FIFA World Cup Ceremony with Qatari singer Fahad Al-Kubaisi and a dazzling host of dancers who appeared to be from all over the world. This is the first time a Korean performer has opened the World Cup. The song is his new solo work, Dreamers.

 

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A change of Democratic leadership in the House

Fierce Planet Posted on by

The entire top tier of Democratic leadership will turn over soon. Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer have both announced they will not run for leadership positions again. And Jim Clyburn, who would otherwise move up, announced he is instead stepping down into the fourth place position. This makes way for an entire team of new, younger leaders. As ever Nancy has perfect timing, and I’m very glad that she and Hoyer plan to remain in Congress for now.

I haven’t heard a lot about Hakeem Jeffries, who they’ve recommended for Leader, though I knew he was sort of “in training” for some role or other. If I hear more about him, I’ll drop a line.

I still love her. Thank you Nancy Pelosi, for all you’ve done.

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The liberation of Kherson

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Kherson, the largest Ukrainian city that Russia managed to occupy, has been fully liberated and returned to Ukrainian control. Kherson was always a site of fierce resistance, resistance that was met with brutality (gift link). Atrocities of this sort have been found everywhere the Russians took over, but in Kherson they were particularly widespread.

Witnesses recount detentions, torture, disappearances in occupied Kherson

…Days after Russian forces fled in retreat, surrendering the only regional capital Russia had managed to seize since the start of its invasion, the horrors that occurred in this stately 18th-century port city are just starting to come into focus.

During a visit to the city on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said occupying Russian forces had committed “hundreds” of atrocities in the Kherson area, though he said the precise number was not yet known.

What is already apparent, however, is that the Russians here operated a detention system on a scale not seen in any of the dozens of other cities, towns and villages liberated by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks….

 
As you can imagine, residents are jubilant, and met every soldier with kisses and praise.

 
And afterwards, they retrieved the Ukrainian flags they had carefully hidden, and let them fly free once again. Sláva Ukrayíni!

 
I know there are people calling for Ukraine to “negotiate” with Putin, which frankly sounds like a call to surrender, at least to me. I’ll say more about that soon when I have time for a longer post.

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Where we stand

Fierce Planet Posted on by

I still feel good about the election this week, though the Congressional side of things will remain unsettled for a while longer. But democracy has survived to fight another day, and that matters a lot.

Women in particular turned out in defense of abortion rights and every state that had a vote on the issue upheld the right to choose. There is also a strong likelihood that Democrats will continue to hold the Senate, and there was no red wave in the House or anywhere else. The Secretary of State positions have been kept out of the hands of the Big Lie pushers (at least so far, some are still counting), and Dems did well with state races such as governors and state legislative runs. Details below.

 
On the Senate

Of our eight critical Senate seats, four were lost (Demings, Barnes, Ryan, and Beasley), we won one (Fetterman in PA), and three remain undecided (Kelly in AZ, Masto in NV, and Warnock in GA). We must take two of those three seats to hold the Senate.

Kelly is running ahead and seems likely to eke out a win. Masto is behind at this moment, but there are many ballots uncounted from Dem strongholds in Nevada so we still hope for a victory here. Warnock is once again headed for a runoff vote, this time on Dec. 6th.

If we win in both AZ and NV, GA becomes less pressing. Of course in the Senate every vote counts (and anything that weakens the power of Manchin/Sinema is a good thing in my book). But they say NV won’t have a full count until next week, so you may as well relax while we wait.

Control of the House is also unconfirmed as I write, but clearly there was no red wave. Even if Republicans eke out a win here, they will control the thinnest of margins, making the next two years very volatile as they attempt to force the majority of the country to bend to their will using their tiny leverage.

 
On abortion rights

Pundits insisted that the loss of abortion rights had faded as an important issue in this election, that public attention had turned away. Many of us disagreed with that, and we were right. Voters, especially women, declared that abortion rights were a top issue in bringing them out to vote. And every state that had a vote on abortion rights reaffirmed that right, even encoding it in some state constitutions.

From Bolts Mag:
Measures to Protect Abortion Rights Triumph on Tuesday
California, Michigan and Vermont became the first to explicitly codify the right to abortion in their state constitutions.

From Dahlia Lithwick at Slate:
Women Remembered to Vote on Abortion
Contrary to the media narrative, women responded to what the Supreme Court did in June.

From Amanda Marcotte at Salon:
The Dobbs effect is real: Voters, still angry about the Roe overturn, turned out to protect abortion
Pundits said people forgot about Dobbs. The success of abortion rights and pro-choice politicians says different

 
On various Secretary of State elections

Republicans nominated several election deniers for Secretary of State positions. Some of these races are not yet finalized. Big Lie supporting, Trump-approved candidates lost their races in Michigan and New Mexico, while two more in Arizona and Nevada have not yet been called.

Putting these folks in charge of state elections would be a very bad idea, as this is one more way Republicans want to subvert the popular will, by skewing how elections are carried out and counted. Let’s hope the final vote counts in Arizona and Nevada will keep them out of office.

I am happy to report that Colorado, being a reasonably sane state, returned Jena Griswold to her role as Secretary of State. Our state elections will continue to run smoothly.

 
On state governors

I was so happy to see that Michigan re-elected Gretchen Whitmer. She’s been very impressive in that role, and Republicans targeted her for defeat. She deserves attention and praise much more than Desantis in Florida, and I hope she continues to be a strong figure in the national Party for years to come.

Another Democratic governor targeted by Republicans was Kathy Hochul of New York, who also won reelection handily. (The rest of the NY Democratic Party seems to be a disaster right now, the result of years of terrible leadership in the NY Party. I do hope they get it together soon.)

Here in Colorado, current governor and known gay guy Jared Polis won reelection easily. (Oh, and flashback to the Senate, Michael Bennet also won easily as I expected.)

 
And some misc. state legislature changes

Colorado also maintained full Democratic control of the State Legislature, and in fact there will be no chance for Republicans to have any statewide influence until at least 2024. The Republican Party here is in even worse shape than the Dems are in New York.

Rhode Island and Massachusetts are also under full legislative control by Democrats now.

And in Michigan:
Democrats Take Control Of Michigan House And Senate For First Time In Decades

Ballotpedia has an in-depth overview of state legislative control, and is following the impact of the 2022 elections. Let’s hope we’ve seen the end of the time where Democrats ignored down-ballot races.

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I feel lighter

Fierce Planet Posted on by

We did good, my friends. Still some races to call, and likely Republicans will take an extremely thin majority in the House. Still hopeful we hold the Senate and if we do, we can definitely work with that.

The red wave did not materialize. We held the line for now, for our country, for democracy, for all that is right in the world. Let’s go forward and push for more.

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A red mirage

Fierce Planet Posted on by

This illusion is deliberately formed when mail-in and early votes are held back to be counted after votes placed on election day. Since mail-in votes tend to be heavily Democratic, in practice this looks as if Republicans are winning early in the evening, then slowly Democratic votes are counted into the majority. Then Republicans claim that the later count was fraudulent, even though the mail-in votes are as valid as any.

Expect to see a lot of this tonight and tomorrow, alongside other efforts to claim fraud where there is none.

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Tomorrow

Fierce Planet Posted on by

I assume I’ll be a mess. I have hopes but no certainty. I do know that I am, we all are, on the side of the people as a whole, of the planet, of justice for all. This is where I want to be, come what may.

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