Abortion rights matter in this election

Fierce Planet Posted on by

The big wave of voter registration we’ve seen from women since the Dobbs decision continues. Tom Bonier talks about it with Teen Vogue.

Women Are Registering to Vote in Huge Numbers in Response to the Roe Decision

In battleground states like Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona, there’s been a surge of women registering to vote.

…Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, says he was surprised by the data. “You tend not to see significant movement in voter registration,” Bonier tells Teen Vogue.

…what he found was like nothing he’s ever seen in his 28 years of analyzing elections. “Women are registering to vote in numbers I’ve never witnessed before,” he wrote. “I’ve run out of superlatives to describe how different this moment is.” After the referendum in Kansas, Mr. Bonier found that 69% of newly registered voters were women; in fact, the gender gap between newly registered voters went from three points (favoring women) six months before the Roe decision to 40 points after.

Analysts see this as a possible election-changer for the Democrats — The Surge That Could Save Democrats

And abortion providers on the ground are still hard at work. I continue to update the abortion resources page linked above.

Planned Parenthood plans mobile abortion clinic in Illinois

Planned Parenthood officials on Monday announced plans for a mobile abortion clinic — a 37-foot RV that will stay in Illinois but travel close to the borders of adjoining states that have banned the procedure since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade earlier this year.

… both abortion clinics on the Illinois side of the St. Louis region, including one operated by Planned Parenthood in Fairview Heights, have been inundated with patients. Leaders of the St. Louis Planned Parenthood office said that since June, the Fairview Heights clinic has seen a 30% increase in abortion patients — a rate officials said was even higher than they anticipated. Patients from outside Missouri and Illinois increased by more than 340%….

“The mobile abortion clinic is a way to reduce travel times and distances in order to meet patients at the Illinois border,” said Dr. Colleen McNicholas, chief medical officer for Planned Parenthood’s St. Louis office. “This will make a dramatic impact on their access.”

The mobile clinic will travel near to the borders of southeastern Missouri, western Kentucky and northeastern Tennessee. Rodriguez said the RV is expected to arrive this month and should be operational by the end of the year.

 
One month until the elections, and voting will begin very soon. Let’s keep working.

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Checking on those critical Senate seats

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I’m still cautiously optimistic about Democrats holding the Senate. Here are updated predictions from establishment groups who assess elections. Three are listed in the table below: the Cook Political Report (C), Larry Sabato of UVA (S), and Inside Elections (IE). As we’ve noted before, these organizations tend to be conservative in their predictions, relying on known data such as voter registration numbers, continuing polls, and structural effects such as traditional gains or losses for the various parties.

It is much harder to predict how enthusiasm among the voters, or anger among the voters, will affect the election. It is hard to predict anything when voters are in flux, and this year seems particularly volatile in that way. Turnout will be everything, as it so often is. Our efforts here will decide whether we win or lose.

Mark Kelly (AZ) C: Leans D – S: Leans D – IE: Leans D
Val Demings (FL) C: Leans R – S: Likely R – IE: Likely R
Rafael Warnock (GA) C: Toss up – S: Toss up – IE: Toss up
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) C: Toss up – S: Toss up – IE: Toss up
Cheri Beasley (NC) C: Leans R – S: Leans R – IE: Leans R
Tim Ryan (OH) C: Leans R – S: Leans R – IE: Likely R
John Fetterman (PA) C: Leans D – S: Leans D – IE: Toss up
Mandela Barnes (WI) C: Toss up – S: Leans R – IE: Likely R

I can’t believe that Rev. Warnock is in a tie with Herschel Walker, a spectacularly bad candidate, but there we are. Overall there are enough potential wins here that we might even (maybe) pick up two extra votes to kill the filibuster. That would be so very good.

Over at DailyKos Elections, Tom Bonier notes the continuing flood of women voters registering for the first time. The anger of women, the flood of new voters, and the strong cash support candidates are getting from small dollar donors are all signs in our favor. Of course, we can take nothing for granted.

Democratic Senate candidates overall have raised double the cash that Republicans have. But we must take notice that Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin has less than half of the cash on hand that Ron Johnson does. Johnson is the incumbent, and has proven hard to beat in the past. Please support Barnes with a donation if you can.

In an earlier post I noted concerns about Maggie Hassan in NH and Michael Bennet in CO holding their Senate seats this cycle. So far there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about with either one (NH is generally rated “Leans D” and CO as “Likely D”, neither seems to be slipping). If either race is local for you, it can’t hurt to lend a hand.

ETA: According to this article in The Hill, Democrats in North Carolina are concerned at how tight Cheri Beasley’s Senate race has become. Let’s hope the national Democratic organizations take this seriously.

I am also paying attention to the Secretary of State race in Colorado. We all need to pay attention to SOS races in our own states. Jena Griswold is running for reelection here, and she is a treasure. All the things she mentions in this ad have helped to make Colorado one of the best states in the nation for ease of voting and rate of voter turnout.

Given how many states are actively trying to prevent many of their citizens from voting, we have to support candidates in every state who will assure that our right to vote is protected.

Make her work count. Vote, and get everyone you know to vote. Help with other GOTV efforts that I’ve outlined before. And then keep pushing for change, as we must, and as we have for generations.

ETA: I don’t have the mental bandwidth to keep up with all the House races this year, but fortunately Balloon Juice does! And is continuing with their aggregated fundraising drive for the House races they think are most winnable. Thank you, Water Girl and Balloon Juice. 💜

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Women of Iran ~ Dancing for freedom

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Reports (from MSNBC, no link) are that somewhere between 40 and 50 people have been killed in and around the Iranian protests. The protests are not disappearing, though, if anything they continue to spread. Internet outages continue, so information still comes slowly.

The women have been forbidden to dance, but they dance anyway. I love these clips so much.

 
In the face of oppression, they speak up for their right to be free, to make their own choices.

 
And continue to express their anger, frustration, and determination to make change.

You are right, Iranian woman on the subway, I am proud of your fight for freedom and justice. I honor your courage. Bless you all. I wish you safety, good health, and many many years of dancing freely. Speak yourself.

ETA: I have no gift link for this, but it’s worth clearing your cache for.

The Bonfire of the Headscarves
For Iran’s protesters, the fight for women’s freedom of choice is now synonymous with a desire to end the rule of the ayatollahs.

Also:

In Hijab Protests, Iranians Reveal Their Oppressive Rulers
An officially sanctioned fatal beating of a woman for incorrectly wearing the hijab unleashes a long-bottled-up rage against a regressive and fearful government

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Update on Iranian protests

Fierce Planet Posted on by

From Sept. 20, this is the first video I saw from the protests in Iran.

A report from Arash Azizi at Newsweek:

Iran’s Regime May Have Just Sparked a Revolution

On Sept. 17, Mahsa’s funeral in her native Kurdistan province was accompanied by massive protests which soon spread all over the country with slogans that targeted not just the hated morality police but the entire Islamic Republic of Iran. The favorite “death to the dictator” slogan, aimed at Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, made a comeback, while a new positive slogan was also heard: “Women, Life, Freedom.”

At the time of writing, four days have passed, and the protests show no sign of stopping. They’ve happened in more than 40 cities and at least 19 out of 31 provinces of the country. This makes them the largest protests since 2009. Iran is, once more, in the throes of a nation-wide mass movement with a clear aim of confronting the brutal Islamist dictatorship. Already iconic images are emerging out of the movement that will help define its brazen courage: A woman with a burning scarf in one hand and a stone in another who is wearing a casual shirt with open buttons; another with a pink backpack and green-dyed hair, casually confronting half a dozen uniformed police; a woman in wheel-chair taking off her hijab and burning it to the chants of “we are all in this together.” This is a women-led revolution.

For anybody who follows Iran, the fact that women are leading the movement comes as no surprise. Popular footballer Ali Karimi spoke for many when he predicted that Iran’s next Kaveh (a national mythical hero) will be a woman. Although it might sound like a cliche, many Iranians have long known the women of the country to be a key hope for change….

If the regime has survived this long, it is thanks to the sheer brutality it has unleashed on the people, as well as the lack of a coherent alternative. Having repressed all elements of civic or political opposition, it has repeatedly drenched popular protests in blood: In 2009, in 2017-18 and in 2019-20. But any use of force has its limits. What is already noteworthy about the 2022 movement is people are fighting back with more ferocity than ever before. During the 2009 movement, non-violence was the rule. This time around even Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi reminded the people that they had a right to legitimate defense against oppression….

And an update from Jason Rezaian at the Washington Post What’s happening in Iran? Here’s what people there are saying. (gift article, should get you past the paywall).

ETA:

Iranian state-organised marchers call for execution of protesters

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Protests against dictators around the world

Fierce Planet Posted on by

As I return home, the world is in a state of turmoil in many places. I like to think that these uprisings against authoritarian regimes will continue and spread, but we know of course that such uprisings often get suppressed and the people who engage in them may end up dead or in prison. Which only highlights the incredible courage of those people who have taken to the streets this week in Russia and Iran.

In many ways it’s easy for me to be an activist, though I’ve had moments in my life where I felt quite scared to speak out, to protest, to potentially be arrested. But as a white woman, fairly good with language and with many friends and legal connections even when I was young, I’ve been in a more-or-less safe situation while protesting. Now, as an old white woman with a decent supply of resources, I am even more secure.

But we have to remember that many, many people in this world — people I consider allies in the broadest sense — put their lives on the line any time they march in the street or hold up a sign. Even as I write this, people around the world are dying for their rights, for freedom to live as they wish, or freedom to live at all.

As Putin refuses to admit that his war against Ukraine is a failure, he begins to escalate. He has now conscripted hundreds of thousands of Russian men and forced them into combat. He has threatened the world with nuclear war if his more conventional efforts fail. The people of Russia, at least in Moscow and St. Petersburg, have taken to the streets in protest.

From the BBC, this report:

Ukraine conflict: Russia arrests hundreds at anti-war protests

Russian police are reported to have arrested hundreds of protesters rallying against the Kremlin’s decision to call up thousands of extra troops to fight in Ukraine….

Flights out of Russia sold out fast after Vladimir Putin’s announcement.

Russia’s president ordered a partial mobilisation, meaning some 300,000 military reservists – but not conscripts – will be drafted to bolster Russia’s forces who have suffered recent battlefield reverses in Ukraine.

The move came a day after occupied areas of Ukraine announced snap referendums on joining Russia.

And in remarks condemned by Ukraine and its allies, Mr Putin stressed that he would use “all available means” to protect Russian territory – implying this could involve nuclear weapons.

And from Al Jazeera, a report that Putin may force those arrested into combat as well. I’m not sure this is his smartest strategic move.

Anti-war protesters in Russia reportedly handed draft papers

More than 1,000 people have been arrested across Russia, according to a local monitoring group, following protests against Moscow’s partial mobilisation order on Wednesday.

Independent news outlets said some of those arrested were served a summons to report to military enlistment offices on Thursday, the first full day of conscription.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked about reports that men detained were being given draft papers, said it was not against the law.

 

Film clips from Moscow and St. Petersburg:

 
And of course we have reports of deaths.

There are also large protests happening in Iran, in response to what seems to be the murder by police of Mehsa Amini, a young woman detained on morality charges — they claimed she had not covered herself well enough to be on the streets. Currently the nation is under an internet shutdown and it’s hard to get reliable information, but there are reports that police have been shooting protesters here as well. I’ll have more as I find out what’s happening. The courage of the citizens in these totalitarian states is awe-inspiring.

ETA: Here is an update on the Russian protests and other reactions to the mobilization, (WashPost gift link, gets you past the paywall for a while).

Videos show Russian anger and fear after Putin’s mobilization

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The Ukrainian advances around Kharkiv

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Over the past few days Ukrainian forces have moved swiftly, regaining several towns and a lot of land near Kharkiv. It is possible that this will be decisive in turning this war around at last. At the very least, Russian forces are looking very weak. From what you’ll read below, it is clear that Ukraine itself has no intention of stopping while Russians still occupy their land, but how Putin might react to these events is still uncertain.

Faster and Furiouser: Ukraine’s Forces Take Back Kharkiv Oblast and More

…the narrative in Ukraine has changed in huge way over the last six days. What initially looked like a push into southern Ukraine by its own forces turned into a blazing two-front counteroffensive with the eastern front cutting off Russia’s critical supply route from Belgorod north of the Russian-Ukraine border to the cities of Kupiansk along the Oskil River and Izium. The appearance of a push along a single southern front may have been effective information warfare.

The tweet below includes a GIF showing the ground taken back over the last week…

As always, Adam Silverman over at Balloon Juice provides excellent daily updates.

And winter is on the way. In response to the Ukrainian advances, Russian is heavily targeting gas and electrical infrastructure in the area. Last night, President Zelenskyy responded in this way:

ETA: In the screenshot above, Zelenskyy used a phrase that I didn’t understand, when he says “Do you still think we are the “Aden people”? Web research of the usual sort didn’t bring me any understanding, so I asked among my friends (I have a lot of really smart friends) and this is what I learned (from a private forum, used with permission):

Elaine said:

I think it is a mistake where the translation missed a word.

“Do you still think that we [Russians and Ukrainians] are ‘one people’?” is the translation I’ve seen of that phrase. ‘one people’ in Ukrainian = «odyn narod» I think the odyn got missed and transliterated as “Aden”.

And Michael added:

I found the Ukrainian version of his message, which contained the phrase “адін народ” (Ukrainian characters for “adin narod”), which does indeed translate to “one people” in Google Translate. So the problem seems to be a bad translation by Facebook.

Editor: Given that Russia’s excuse for invading was this “one people” mythology, I believe these interpretations are correct.

 
Zelenskyy also said this:

Ukraine will fight to the end: Zelenskyy’s Independence Day vow

“We don’t care what army you have, we only care about our land. We will fight for it until the end,” Zelenskyy said in a video address on Wednesday, which also marks six months since the Russian invasion began.

“We have been holding strong for six months. It’s tough but we have clenched our fists and we are fighting for our destiny,” he said.

“Every new day is a reason not to give up. After such a long journey we do not have the right not to go on to the end.”

Referring to Russia, he said: “We will not try to find an understanding with terrorists”.

And there’s also this, reported today:

Putin reeling as elite marine unit mutinies and troops prepare to ‘surrender’ in Kherson

Putin cornered could be very dangerous still.

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Good news from Michigan

Fierce Planet Posted on by

In an earlier post I pointed out that Michigan’s state legislature had intervened against the will of the electorate and refused to allow abortion rights to be enshrined in the state. Today the Lege was overruled by the state Supreme Court and the measure will be on the ballot after all.

It’s not over yet, as there needs to be a final vote, but at least it seems like the voters will have their say.

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Election details

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Here’s another source of detailed information for both national and local elections. Daniel Nichanian of Bolts Magazine always has some of the best real-time information right through election day. Here’s an example focused on this very week.

What to Watch in the Primaries from September 6 to September 13

…Here are 29 races that Bolts is watching on Sept. 6 (in Massachusetts), and Sept. 13 (in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island), as prepared by Bolts editor Daniel Nichanian. More may be added to our cheat sheet through Election Day.

Check back on Election Night as we fill in each result in the second column….

If you want to follow the mid-terms closely, you really should sign up for the Bolts newsletter. I read it always.

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