I’m still cautiously optimistic about Democrats holding the Senate. Here are updated predictions from establishment groups who assess elections. Three are listed in the table below: the Cook Political Report (C), Larry Sabato of UVA (S), and Inside Elections (IE). As we’ve noted before, these organizations tend to be conservative in their predictions, relying on known data such as voter registration numbers, continuing polls, and structural effects such as traditional gains or losses for the various parties. It is much harder to predict how enthusiasm among the voters, or anger among the voters, will affect the election. It is hard … Continue reading →