Checking on those critical Senate seats
I’m still cautiously optimistic about Democrats holding the Senate. Here are updated predictions from establishment groups who assess elections. Three are listed in the table below: the Cook Political Report (C), Larry Sabato of UVA (S), and Inside Elections (IE). As we’ve noted before, these organizations tend to be conservative in their predictions, relying on known data such as voter registration numbers, continuing polls, and structural effects such as traditional gains or losses for the various parties.
It is much harder to predict how enthusiasm among the voters, or anger among the voters, will affect the election. It is hard to predict anything when voters are in flux, and this year seems particularly volatile in that way. Turnout will be everything, as it so often is. Our efforts here will decide whether we win or lose.
|Mark Kelly (AZ)||C: Leans D – S: Leans D – IE: Leans D|
|Val Demings (FL)||C: Leans R – S: Likely R – IE: Likely R|
|Rafael Warnock (GA)||C: Toss up – S: Toss up – IE: Toss up|
|Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)||C: Toss up – S: Toss up – IE: Toss up|
|Cheri Beasley (NC)||C: Leans R – S: Leans R – IE: Leans R|
|Tim Ryan (OH)||C: Leans R – S: Leans R – IE: Likely R|
|John Fetterman (PA)||C: Leans D – S: Leans D – IE: Toss up|
|Mandela Barnes (WI)||C: Toss up – S: Leans R – IE: Likely R|
I can’t believe that Rev. Warnock is in a tie with Herschel Walker, a spectacularly bad candidate, but there we are. Overall there are enough potential wins here that we might even (maybe) pick up two extra votes to kill the filibuster. That would be so very good.
Over at DailyKos Elections, Tom Bonier notes the continuing flood of women voters registering for the first time. The anger of women, the flood of new voters, and the strong cash support candidates are getting from small dollar donors are all signs in our favor. Of course, we can take nothing for granted.
Democratic Senate candidates overall have raised double the cash that Republicans have. But we must take notice that Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin has less than half of the cash on hand that Ron Johnson does. Johnson is the incumbent, and has proven hard to beat in the past. Please support Barnes with a donation if you can.
In an earlier post I noted concerns about Maggie Hassan in NH and Michael Bennet in CO holding their Senate seats this cycle. So far there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about with either one (NH is generally rated “Leans D” and CO as “Likely D”, neither seems to be slipping). If either race is local for you, it can’t hurt to lend a hand.
ETA: According to this article in The Hill, Democrats in North Carolina are concerned at how tight Cheri Beasley’s Senate race has become. Let’s hope the national Democratic organizations take this seriously.
I am also paying attention to the Secretary of State race in Colorado. We all need to pay attention to SOS races in our own states. Jena Griswold is running for reelection here, and she is a treasure. All the things she mentions in this ad have helped to make Colorado one of the best states in the nation for ease of voting and rate of voter turnout.
Given how many states are actively trying to prevent many of their citizens from voting, we have to support candidates in every state who will assure that our right to vote is protected.
Make her work count. Vote, and get everyone you know to vote. Help with other GOTV efforts that I’ve outlined before. And then keep pushing for change, as we must, and as we have for generations.
ETA: I don’t have the mental bandwidth to keep up with all the House races this year, but fortunately Balloon Juice does! And is continuing with their aggregated fundraising drive for the House races they think are most winnable. Thank you, Water Girl and Balloon Juice. 💜