Category Archives: Democrats

A red mirage

Fierce Planet Posted on by

This illusion is deliberately formed when mail-in and early votes are held back to be counted after votes placed on election day. Since mail-in votes tend to be heavily Democratic, in practice this looks as if Republicans are winning early in the evening, then slowly Democratic votes are counted into the majority. Then Republicans claim that the later count was fraudulent, even though the mail-in votes are as valid as any. Expect to see a lot of this tonight and tomorrow, alongside other efforts to claim fraud where there is none. Will the GQP prime their base for action by … Continue reading →

Who is likely to vote?

Fierce Planet Posted on by

I’m not sure we know. Don’t let anyone tell you young people don’t show up to vote. We are — and we will continue to show up these last five days until Election Day, including on campus at UT Austin! pic.twitter.com/h2AW1JDIRb — NextGen America (@NextGenAmerica) November 3, 2022 ETA: This report: Women under 25 could be the MVPs of the midterms Why more young women are registered to vote in the midterms — and why polling is ignoring them.

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Voter turnout remains high

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Early voting and mail-in voting numbers seem to be matching 2018 levels, and you might recall that was a very good year for Democrats. But of course there’s no way of knowing who all those votes are for, and let’s face it, Republicans are also really juiced to vote this year. So no complacency, okay? Keep voting and make sure your friends and family vote too. Wave of early voting across nation could signal high turnout for 2022 Colorado’s early ballot returns reach over 440,000, hitting double-digit turnout   Still our best public speaker, President Obama. Wow pic.twitter.com/0EabEDaau6 — Acyn … Continue reading →

“Margin of Effort”

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And this is exactly right, just as we’ve been talking about. The House is 100% "within the margin of effort." Great way to put it! https://t.co/cltuPmEDrb — Rachel Bitecofer 📈🔭🇺🇲🇺🇦 (@RachelBitecofer) October 19, 2022 I have to admit to a strange experience last night. My ballot arrived, as expected (because Colorado’s system emailed to say it was on the way). And when I opened the envelope and held the ballot in my hands, I felt a fierceness beyond what I’ve ever felt for an election before, not even in 2016 and 2020. I want 2022 to go well, for the … Continue reading →

Beware the GOP

Fierce Planet Posted on by

At this point in the cycle, we pretty much expect election polling to tighten. Wandering voters come back to their original party preference as everyone becomes more engaged. And sure enough, that’s what recent polls show. Given how close this election has been all along, you can assume most races are toss-ups right now. With that in mind, it’s important to remember what Republicans plan to do if they take control of Congress next month. They haven’t said much about their plans, knowing that what they want is not particularly popular with American voters. This Washington Post report teases out … Continue reading →

Checking on those critical Senate seats

Fierce Planet Posted on by

I’m still cautiously optimistic about Democrats holding the Senate. Here are updated predictions from establishment groups who assess elections. Three are listed in the table below: the Cook Political Report (C), Larry Sabato of UVA (S), and Inside Elections (IE). As we’ve noted before, these organizations tend to be conservative in their predictions, relying on known data such as voter registration numbers, continuing polls, and structural effects such as traditional gains or losses for the various parties. It is much harder to predict how enthusiasm among the voters, or anger among the voters, will affect the election. It is hard … Continue reading →

Election details

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Here’s another source of detailed information for both national and local elections. Daniel Nichanian of Bolts Magazine always has some of the best real-time information right through election day. Here’s an example focused on this very week. What to Watch in the Primaries from September 6 to September 13 …Here are 29 races that Bolts is watching on Sept. 6 (in Massachusetts), and Sept. 13 (in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island), as prepared by Bolts editor Daniel Nichanian. More may be added to our cheat sheet through Election Day. Check back on Election Night as we fill in each … Continue reading →

Good morning!

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Not sure this Biden speech will change many minds, but I am so glad he said what he did. It’s a moment in our country’s history that deserves recognition, and the danger must be named. I think he named it well, and judging by all the fainting and whines today, other people think so too.   I haven’t posted much recently because I’ve been busy. In addition to writing up my thoughts on the midterms, with a reference guide to the most important Senate races, I spent a couple of days following virtual sessions of Netroots Nation 2022. I live-tweeted … Continue reading →

The 2022 midterms are now

Fierce Planet Posted on by

The mid-terms are coming up fast and the political situation in this country is in flux. I want to focus on the key races that will help us hold, or perhaps even expand, our Senate majority. That’s looking very possible right now, even though the more traditional election forecasters still rate most of these races as toss-ups at best. I don’t have to tell you how important this election is. I honestly believe the future of our nation depends on holding the line this year and in 2024. I’m focusing here on Senate races that need to be top priorities … Continue reading →