Category Archives: Elections

Voter turnout remains high

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Early voting and mail-in voting numbers seem to be matching 2018 levels, and you might recall that was a very good year for Democrats. But of course there’s no way of knowing who all those votes are for, and let’s face it, Republicans are also really juiced to vote this year. So no complacency, okay? Keep voting and make sure your friends and family vote too. Wave of early voting across nation could signal high turnout for 2022 Colorado’s early ballot returns reach over 440,000, hitting double-digit turnout   Still our best public speaker, President Obama. Wow pic.twitter.com/0EabEDaau6 — Acyn … Continue reading →

Intimidation at the polls, already

Fierce Planet Posted on by

A reminder that if you vote in person, or even use a drop box, you may encounter MAGA types who try to scare you and stop you voting. That’s illegal, and here’s some info on what to do if it happens. If an alleged “poll watcher” tries to impede you at the voting booth:#1 – Tell him to kindly step out of the way#2 – Take his picture with a cell phone#3 – Call the FBIFBI Civil Rights Div. 202-307-2767 or 800-253-3931.US DOJ Civil Rights Div. 202-307-2767 or 800-253-3931 — JenB- I have voted!- 🇺🇦🌻 (@JenSemDem07) October 22, 2022 There … Continue reading →

“Margin of Effort”

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And this is exactly right, just as we’ve been talking about. The House is 100% "within the margin of effort." Great way to put it! https://t.co/cltuPmEDrb — Rachel Bitecofer 📈🔭🇺🇲🇺🇦 (@RachelBitecofer) October 19, 2022 I have to admit to a strange experience last night. My ballot arrived, as expected (because Colorado’s system emailed to say it was on the way). And when I opened the envelope and held the ballot in my hands, I felt a fierceness beyond what I’ve ever felt for an election before, not even in 2016 and 2020. I want 2022 to go well, for the … Continue reading →

Beware the GOP

Fierce Planet Posted on by

At this point in the cycle, we pretty much expect election polling to tighten. Wandering voters come back to their original party preference as everyone becomes more engaged. And sure enough, that’s what recent polls show. Given how close this election has been all along, you can assume most races are toss-ups right now. With that in mind, it’s important to remember what Republicans plan to do if they take control of Congress next month. They haven’t said much about their plans, knowing that what they want is not particularly popular with American voters. This Washington Post report teases out … Continue reading →

Abortion rights matter in this election

Fierce Planet Posted on by

The big wave of voter registration we’ve seen from women since the Dobbs decision continues. Tom Bonier talks about it with Teen Vogue. Women Are Registering to Vote in Huge Numbers in Response to the Roe Decision In battleground states like Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona, there’s been a surge of women registering to vote. …Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, says he was surprised by the data. “You tend not to see significant movement in voter registration,” Bonier tells Teen Vogue. …what he found was like nothing he’s ever seen in his 28 years of analyzing elections. “Women are registering … Continue reading →

Checking on those critical Senate seats

Fierce Planet Posted on by

I’m still cautiously optimistic about Democrats holding the Senate. Here are updated predictions from establishment groups who assess elections. Three are listed in the table below: the Cook Political Report (C), Larry Sabato of UVA (S), and Inside Elections (IE). As we’ve noted before, these organizations tend to be conservative in their predictions, relying on known data such as voter registration numbers, continuing polls, and structural effects such as traditional gains or losses for the various parties. It is much harder to predict how enthusiasm among the voters, or anger among the voters, will affect the election. It is hard … Continue reading →

Good news from Michigan

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In an earlier post I pointed out that Michigan’s state legislature had intervened against the will of the electorate and refused to allow abortion rights to be enshrined in the state. Today the Lege was overruled by the state Supreme Court and the measure will be on the ballot after all. BREAKING: Michigan Supreme Court in a 5-2 decision ordered the Reproductive Freedom For All measure placed on the ballot after the Board of State Canvassers deadlocked. This measure will enshrine abortion rights into the state’s Constitution (irrevocable by SCOTUS OR Congress). — Andrew Wortman 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇸 (@AmoneyResists) September 8, 2022 … Continue reading →

Election details

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Here’s another source of detailed information for both national and local elections. Daniel Nichanian of Bolts Magazine always has some of the best real-time information right through election day. Here’s an example focused on this very week. What to Watch in the Primaries from September 6 to September 13 …Here are 29 races that Bolts is watching on Sept. 6 (in Massachusetts), and Sept. 13 (in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island), as prepared by Bolts editor Daniel Nichanian. More may be added to our cheat sheet through Election Day. Check back on Election Night as we fill in each … Continue reading →

Fired up

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This matches what I see/feel around the mid-terms this year (gift link, will get you through the paywall for a while). Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like It …once the actual Dobbs decision came down, everything changed. For many Americans, confronting the loss of abortion rights was different from anticipating it. In my 28 years analyzing elections, I’ve never seen anything like what’s happened in the past two months in American politics: Women are registering to vote in numbers I’ve never witnessed. I’ve run out of superlatives to describe how different this moment is, … Continue reading →

Good morning!

Fierce Planet Posted on by

Not sure this Biden speech will change many minds, but I am so glad he said what he did. It’s a moment in our country’s history that deserves recognition, and the danger must be named. I think he named it well, and judging by all the fainting and whines today, other people think so too.   I haven’t posted much recently because I’ve been busy. In addition to writing up my thoughts on the midterms, with a reference guide to the most important Senate races, I spent a couple of days following virtual sessions of Netroots Nation 2022. I live-tweeted … Continue reading →