In January there is supposed to be a national election in Iraq, which should be the start of their status as a full, free nation, though they’ll still be dependent on the U.S. military for security. In order to hold an election, you first have to register voters. Juan Cole reports that there is a shortage of cards used for registering new voters. The cards are based on the old U.N. food ration list, which were given by household, not by individual, so it’s not entirely clear how many voters need to be registered. The information Cole cites indicates that hundreds of thousands may be missed.
As expected, the various national factions in Iraq are manuvering for power as plans for the election proceed. The Independent Election Committee of Iraq has set up stringent requirements for candidates, more stringent than most countries use, which raises concerns that the interim government may be trying to squeeze some candidates out. They’ve also decided that no former Baathist member will be allowed if they held rank above a certain, fairly low, level, and this will disqualify many educated people such as teachers and college professors.
And beyond the struggles between Baathists, Sunnis and Shiites, there are struggles between various Shiite factions, and everyone is apparently fighting with Ahmed Chalabi’s power base. No one seems to know how to accomodate Moqtada al Sadr’s base, either. Really, it makes our red state/blue state struggles look ridiculously simple.
This election is to create a 275-person national assembly that will then write a constitution and install a national government. Some degree of national unity will be necessary if the assembly is to pull that off. It remains to be seen how much unity will come out of this interim election, especially since Iraq will be under martial law for the two months leading up to the election, and violent attacks continue around the country.